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I am a plant population biologist with research focused in two areas - conservation ecology, including the development of general tools for population and range modeling, as well as building knowledge about particular rare species; and evolutionary ecology, including bet hedging, life history evolution, breeding system evolution, and comparative analyses of the evolution of climatic niches. Since joining the LTRR in September, 2013, my research is focused on building process-based models to forecast how western U. S. tree species will respond to climate change. This involves the integration of large data sets (Forest Inventory and Analysis, the International Tree Ring Data Bank, and the Botanical Information and Ecology Network) via multilevel statistical models. Niche parameters are then fed into demographic models (integral projection models). This work is in collaboration with Brian Enquist (EEB, U of Arizona), Sean McMahon (Smithsonian), Cory Merow (Smithsonian), Sydne Record (Bryn Mawr College, Harvard Forest), Andy Gray (PNW-FIA), and others.
Courses
  • SDD
    Sonoran Desert Discovery

  • FE
    Forest Ecology

  • IPP
    Internship Presentation and Planning

  • CB
    Conservation Biology

  • REE
    Research in Ecology and Evolution

Student Thesis/Dissertation
  • Climatic Sensitivities Derived From Tree Rings Improve Predictions of the Forest Vegetation Simulator Growth and Yield Model

    2021

    masters
Grants
  • Funding agency logo
    Forest Inventory and Analysis Tree-Ring Analysis

    Principal Investigator (PI)

    2022

    $50.0K
    Active
  • Funding agency logo
    MCB-ECA: Assimilation of Tree-Ring and Forest Inventory Data across the Interior Western United States: A Hierarchical Analysis of Patterns and Drivers to Forecast Future Forest Productivity

    Principal Investigator (PI)

    2018

    $325.7K
    Active
  • Funding agency logo
    Assessment of Carbon Allocation, Sequestration, and Growth Potential to Aid Colorado Spring Creek Restoration After The 2018 Forest Fire

    Co-Investigator (COI)

    2021

    $48.7K
  • Funding agency logo
    North American Forest and Inventory Tree Ring Data

    Principal Investigator (PI)

    2018

    $12.0K
  • Funding agency logo
    EAGER: Demographic Models of Interior Western U.S. Tree Distributions - Climate in the Context of Competition, Disturbance, and Natural Enemies

    Principal Investigator (PI)

    2016

    $150.0K
  • Funding agency logo
    Forest Resilience to Climate Change: A Dendroclimatic Assessment of Trees with Commercial and Conservation Value

    Principal Investigator (PI)

    2016

    $70.9K
  • Funding agency logo
    FIA Increment Core Archiving - Arizona

    Principal Investigator (PI)

    2016

    $15.0K
News
  • Future forests will have smaller trees and soak up less carbon, study suggests

    2022

  • Climate-Only Models Likely Underestimate Species Extinction, Study Finds

    2021

  • Warming Will Reduce Ability of Trees to Slow Climate Change

    2020

  • Southwest Forest Trees Will Grow Much Slower in the 21st Century

    2018

  • Study: North American Forests Aren't Saviors From Climate Change

    2016

  • 'Speed Networking' Leads to UA Interdisciplinary Projects

    2015

Publications (38)
Recent
  • The policy and ecology of forest-based climate mitigation: pitfalls, needs, and opportunities

    2022

  • Population-specific responses determine species’ vulnerability to climate change: a spatiotemporal case study of ponderosa pine

    2022

  • Ecological forecasting of tree growth: regional fusion of tree-ring and forest inventory data to quantify drivers and characterize uncertainty

    2022

  • Legacy effects in radial tree growth are rarely significant when accounting for inherent ecological memory

    2022

  • The case for adding tree rings to North America’s national forest inventories: an essential tool to guide drawdown of atmospheric CO2

    2022

  • Tree-ring data reject the leading edge-trailing edge paradigm for range change

    2022

  • Climate-driven, but dynamic and complex? A reconciliation of competing hypotheses for species’ distributions

    2022

  • Tree growth-climate relationships: should we detrend the explanatory variables?

    2020

  • Statistical age determination of tree rings

    2020

  • Scaling of tree growth-climate relationships: aggregation underestimates variability but does not inflate sensitivity

    2020

  • Climatic sensitivities derived from tree rings improve predictions of the Forest Vegetation Simulator growth and yield model

    2020

  • Continental-scale tree ring-based projection of Douglas-fir growth testing the limits of space-for-time substitution

    2020

  • When tree rings go global: challenges and opportunities for retro- and prospective insight

    2018

  • Dendroecology meets genomics in the common garden: new insights on climate adaptation invited Commentary)

    2018

  • Sampling bias overestimates climate change impacts on forest growth in the Southwestern United States

    2018

  • Disentangling competitive vs. climatic effects on tropical forest mortality

    2017

  • Dispersal is associated with morphological innovation, but not increased diversification, in Cyphostemma Vitaceae)

    2017

  • Fusing tree-ring and forest inventory data to infer influences on tree growth

    2017

  • Predicting the abundance of forest types across the eastern U.S. through inverse modelling of tree-level demography

    2017

  • Making process-based range forecasts for many species

    2016

  • Observed forest sensitivity to climate implies larger reductions in 21st century forest growth

    2015

  • Advancing population ecology with integral projection models: a practical guide

    2014

  • Insights on the Evolution of Plant Succulence from a Remarkable Radiation in Madagascar Euphorbia)

    2014

  • Data from: Advancing population ecology with integral projection models: a practical guide

    2013

  • Are species responses to global change predicted by past niche evolution?

    2013

  • Estimating covariation between vital rates: a simulation study of connected vs. separate generalized linear mixed models GLMMs)

    2012

  • Extreme environments select for reproductive assurance: evidence from evening primroses Oenothera)

    2011

  • Breeding system variation in 10 evening primroses Oenothera sections Anogra and Kleinia; Onagraceae)

    2010

  • Fire, vital rates, and population viability: a hierarchical Bayesian analysis of the endangered Florida scrub mint

    2010

  • Ecological conditions affect evolutionary trajectory in a predator-prey system.

    2009

  • Climate, niche evolution, and diversification of the bird-cage evening primroses Oenothera, sections Anogra and Kleinia)

    2009

  • Modeling the effect of fire on the demography of Dicerandra frutescens ssp. frutescens Lamiaceae) an endangered plant endemic to Florida scrub

    2008

  • Bet hedging via seed banking in desert evening primroses Oenothera, Onagraceae) demographic evidence from natural populations.

    2007

  • Germ banking: bet-hedging and variable release from egg and seed dormancy.

    2005

  • Climate and life-history evolution in evening primroses Oenothera, Onagraceae) A phylogenetic comparative analysis

    2005

  • Mating systems and limits to seed production in two Dicerandra mints endemic to Florida scrub

    2004

  • Reproductive biology of three sympatric endangered plants endemic to Florida scrub

    2003

  • Genetic diversity and reproductive biology in Warea carteri Brassicaceae) a narrowly endemic Florida scrub annual.

    2000

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