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I am a plant population biologist with research focused in two areas - conservation ecology, including the development of general tools for population and range modeling, as well as building knowledge about particular rare species; and evolutionary ecology, including bet hedging, life history evolution, breeding system evolution, and comparative analyses of the evolution of climatic niches. Since joining the LTRR in September, 2013, my research is focused on building process-based models to forecast how western U. S. tree species will respond to climate change. This involves the integration of large data sets (Forest Inventory and Analysis, the International Tree Ring Data Bank, and the Botanical Information and Ecology Network) via multilevel statistical models. Niche parameters are then fed into demographic models (integral projection models). This work is in collaboration with Brian Enquist (EEB, U of Arizona), Sean McMahon (Smithsonian), Cory Merow (Smithsonian), Sydne Record (Bryn Mawr College, Harvard Forest), Andy Gray (PNW-FIA), and others.Show Less
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Courses
- CBConservation Biology
- IPPInternship Presentation and Planning
- SDDSonoran Desert Discovery
- REEResearch in Ecology and Evolution
- FEForest Ecology
Grants
- Forest Inventory and Analysis Tree-Ring Analysis
Principal Investigator (PI)
2022
$50.0K
Active - Enhanced Forest Monitoring with Tree Rings to Support Navajo Management of Forest Resources
Principal Investigator (PI)
2020
$306.1K
Active - Integrated Watershed Hazard Assessment for Wildfire, Floods, and Debris Flows on the Navajo
Principal Investigator (PI)
2019
$150.0K
Active - MCB-ECA: Assimilation of Tree-Ring and Forest Inventory Data across the Interior Western United States: A Hierarchical Analysis of Patterns and Drivers to Forecast Future Forest Productivity
Principal Investigator (PI)
2018
$325.7K
Active - Assessment of Carbon Allocation, Sequestration, and Growth Potential to Aid Colorado Spring Creek Restoration After The 2018 Forest Fire
Co-Investigator (COI)
2021
$48.7K
- North American Forest and Inventory Tree Ring Data
Principal Investigator (PI)
2018
$12.0K
- EAGER: Demographic Models of Interior Western U.S. Tree Distributions - Climate in the Context of Competition, Disturbance, and Natural Enemies
Principal Investigator (PI)
2016
$150.0K
- Forest Resilience to Climate Change: A Dendroclimatic Assessment of Trees with Commercial and Conservation Value
Principal Investigator (PI)
2016
$70.9K
- FIA Increment Core Archiving - Arizona
Principal Investigator (PI)
2016
$15.0K
News
- Future forests will have smaller trees and soak up less carbon, study suggests
2022
- Climate-Only Models Likely Underestimate Species Extinction, Study Finds
2021
- Warming Will Reduce Ability of Trees to Slow Climate Change
2020
- Southwest Forest Trees Will Grow Much Slower in the 21st Century
2018
- Study: North American Forests Aren't Saviors From Climate Change
2016
- 'Speed Networking' Leads to UA Interdisciplinary Projects
2015
Publications (38)
Recent
- The policy and ecology of forest-based climate mitigation: pitfalls, needs, and opportunities
2022
- Legacy effects in radial tree growth are rarely significant when accounting for inherent ecological memory
2022
- Ecological forecasting of tree growth: regional fusion of tree-ring and forest inventory data to quantify drivers and characterize uncertainty
2022
- Climate-driven, but dynamic and complex? A reconciliation of competing hypotheses for species’ distributions
2022
- Tree-ring data reject the leading edge-trailing edge paradigm for range change
2022
- The case for adding tree rings to North America’s national forest inventories: an essential tool to guide drawdown of atmospheric CO2
2022
- Population-specific responses determine species’ vulnerability to climate change: a spatiotemporal case study of ponderosa pine
2022
- Tree growth-climate relationships: should we detrend the explanatory variables?
2020
- Statistical age determination of tree rings
2020
- Scaling of tree growth-climate relationships: aggregation underestimates variability but does not inflate sensitivity
2020
- Climatic sensitivities derived from tree rings improve predictions of the Forest Vegetation Simulator growth and yield model
2020
- Continental-scale tree ring-based projection of Douglas-fir growth - testing the limits of space-for-time substitution
2020
- Sampling bias overestimates climate change impacts on forest growth in the Southwestern United States
2018
- Dendroecology meets genomics in the common garden: new insights on climate adaptation (invited Commentary)
2018
- When tree rings go global: challenges and opportunities for retro- and prospective insight
2018
- Disentangling competitive vs. climatic effects on tropical forest mortality
2017
- Predicting the abundance of forest types across the eastern U.S. through inverse modelling of tree-level demography
2017
- Dispersal is associated with morphological innovation, but not increased diversification, in Cyphostemma (Vitaceae)
2017
- Fusing tree-ring and forest inventory data to infer influences on tree growth
2017
- Making process-based range forecasts for many species
2016
- Observed forest sensitivity to climate implies larger reductions in 21st century forest growth
2015
- Advancing population ecology with integral projection models: a practical guide
2014
- Insights on the Evolution of Plant Succulence from a Remarkable Radiation in Madagascar (Euphorbia)
2014
- Data from: Advancing population ecology with integral projection models: a practical guide
2013
- Are species responses to global change predicted by past niche evolution?
2013
- Estimating covariation between vital rates: a simulation study of connected vs. separate generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs).
2012
- Extreme environments select for reproductive assurance: evidence from evening primroses (Oenothera).
2011
- Fire, vital rates, and population viability: a hierarchical Bayesian analysis of the endangered Florida scrub mint
2010
- Breeding system variation in 10 evening primroses (Oenothera sections Anogra and Kleinia; Onagraceae).
2010
- Climate, niche evolution, and diversification of the bird-cage evening primroses (Oenothera, sections Anogra and Kleinia).
2009
- Ecological conditions affect evolutionary trajectory in a predator-prey system.
2009
- Modeling the effect of fire on the demography of Dicerandra frutescens ssp. frutescens (Lamiaceae), an endangered plant endemic to Florida scrub
2008
- Bet hedging via seed banking in desert evening primroses (Oenothera, Onagraceae): demographic evidence from natural populations.
2007
- Climate and life-history evolution in evening primroses (Oenothera, Onagraceae) : A phylogenetic comparative analysis
2005
- Germ banking: bet-hedging and variable release from egg and seed dormancy.
2005
- Mating systems and limits to seed production in two Dicerandra mints endemic to Florida scrub
2004
- Reproductive biology of three sympatric endangered plants endemic to Florida scrub
2003
- Genetic diversity and reproductive biology in Warea carteri (Brassicaceae), a narrowly endemic Florida scrub annual.
2000